He has forgiven senior Saudi officials for their scratches in response to simultaneous and contradictory demands from the Biden administration that members of the royal family in Riyadh pump more oil into the global economy while reducing carbon emissions.
My travels over the past two weeks — first to Riyadh to hear Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman commit Saudi Arabia to net parity by 2060, then to Glasgow for the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference — can feel the echo. From the first energy price shock in the green age.
Domestic and international policies of rising energy prices, with the cost of a basket of fossil fuels doubling since last May and power outages in China and India, are at odds with the long-term certainty that world leaders must deal more effectively with the risks of a warming world.
I came home this weekend to Washington with three convictions:
- First, what the world is witnessing is an energy transformation rather than an energy revolution. The switch from fossil fuels to renewables will take years, and the only way to speed it up is with more technological breakthroughs, such as battery storage; more changes in global politics, such as a carbon tax; And even bigger investments in renewables.
- Second, we will all hear the term “climate change adaptation” because “climate change mitigation” will take much longer than purists would like. The difference is that mitigation addresses the root causes of climate change while adaptation manages its negative effects. When mitigation strategies fail or move too slowly, a society’s adaptation strategies can be more “climate-resilient” and, in some societies, a matter of survival from the effects of heat waves to rising seas.
- Third, international and domestic policies will shape the future of energy and will certainly shape new technologies and changing climate realities. Countries such as China, Russia and India are either unwilling or unable to transition faster to renewables. بطولات الليفر The United States will need to balance its human rights demands on China against its desire to win climate concessions. In democracies around the world, voters will demand reliable and affordable energy — even as their leaders struggle to meet their net-zero commitments.
The painful lesson of the past few weeks is that you can’t take the supply of fossil fuels off the market when energy demand is rising, and renewable alternatives aren’t enough yet.
“The world has fallen asleep in a supply crisis,” Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, the UAE’s special envoy for climate change, said in Riyadh. His country was ahead of all other oil-producing nations in setting a net-zero target for 2050. Despite this, he said, “Transition means transition. It takes time.”
Minister Al Jaber says the lesson he draws from current energy concerns is that even as the world rushes toward renewables and decarbonization, the reality is that fossil fuels remain 80 percent of the energy mix and about 60 percent come from oil and gas alone, It is called “the spinal cord of our ability to meet the global energy demands of the future”.
What The Economist described as an “energy scare” exposed deeper problems as the world shifts to a cleaner energy system, including insufficient investment in renewables and some transitional fossil bases, rising geopolitical risks and tenuous safety buffers in energy markets. There will be more energy crises, perhaps a popular revolt against climate policies.”
On climate adaptation versus mitigation, this month the United Nations Environment Program published a report that concluded that growth in climate impact far outpaces adaptation efforts, a reality that hits developing countries hard.
The report says developing countries need five to ten times more funding than they need to manage climate impacts, or about $200 billion annually. However, in 2019, only $20 billion in climate finance from developed to developing countries, or about a quarter of the total, was allocated to adaptation projects.
Projects like these range from making infrastructure more resilient to harsh weather to making farming methods more drought-resistant, from developing better early warning systems for storms to better cooling measures against extreme heat.
The Atlantic Council has taken countless ways to mitigate climate change and slow the rise in global temperatures through the cutting-edge work of its Global Energy Center.
At the same time, the council’s Archt Rockefeller Foundation Center for Resilience has been a world leader in issues of climate adaptation. One of her most important recent initiatives has been to inspire cities and communities around the world to name their chief heat officers and name heat waves to confront the danger.
For example, Miami-Dade County in Florida has moved to hire Jane Gilbert as its first CHO, which is now followed by Athens, Greece; Freetown, South Africa; And Phoenix. لعب العاب على الانترنت
Gilbert told Axios that her heating office will be “data-driven” and “look at the best possible solutions available for heat management.” She noted that applying a special coating to the pavement can have a cooling effect of 10-12 degrees.
If you think that doesn’t matter, think about this. A University of Washington study reports that extreme heat contributed to about 12,000 deaths in the United States each year in the decade through 2020. By 2100, that number could reach about 100,000 annually.
Regardless of the temperature readings, geopolitical heat and domestic politics will continue. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin did not attend in Glasgow this week, a fact that US President Joe Biden drove home.
“It’s just a huge issue and they’ve gone away,” Biden said. Tell Journalists before returning home from Glasgow. “How do you do that and claim you can take any command?”
At the same time, President Biden’s advisers know that the way he handles energy prices, and the resulting inflation, may shape the future of his Democratic Party and that of his Democratic Party more than his climate policies or his Afghan plight.
Whether in the Saudi desert or the Scottish Highlands, the truth is that fossil fuel advocates and climate utopians must find common ground. The magnitude of the climate threat requires an energy transition, but it will not be achieved without oil and gas, without massive investments in climate adaptation, and without the inescapable chaotic realities of global and domestic politics. عمر واين روني
Frederic Kempe He is the president and CEO of the Atlantic Council.