Former hedge fund manager at Goldman Sachs and founder of Real Vision, Raul Pal, believes that social media critics are wrong and that the cryptocurrency market cycle will not end this year.
But things might get a little hairy on the way.
In an interview with Real Vision on November 3, Pal predicted that the current rookie race would not end in December as it did so spectacularly in 2015 and 2017, and would instead extend to some time between March and June.
According to Pal, the Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoin markets are likely to take a “pain path” and will likely crash twice over the next six months.
“I think we’ll probably have a sell off, and then explode again because that’s the most painful path and markets tend to take the most pain path.”
Cointelegraph reported on November 4th that econometric data indicates that if the current cycle follows the same pattern as 2017, the next BTC price peak could reach $253,800.
Over the course of 2021, Pal has become increasingly bullish on Ethereum, describing it in August as “the biggest deal.” He said that the upcoming launch of Eth2 and the possible launch of the Ethereum ETF in the first half of 2022 could be catalysts for a massive rally, expanding access to the crypto market and attracting large institutions.
“Institutions tend to make asset allocation decisions on a quarterly basis, and I think from January to March next year we will see a massive influx.”
“Everyone is betting on ETH. It creates this amazing supply and demand imbalance in ETH where only about 11% of the total ETH supply is available. Everything else is locked in to this interconnection,” he said.
Read more: Bitcoin will peak at $253K, and Ethereum at $22,000 in this cycle if the 2016 bull halving repeats
“All of this means that we are likely to see an extended cycle, and I think it stretches between March and June, and that will be a new phase.”
Bitcoin was created in 2009, and has so far moved in market cycles of about four years, around the halving, which is when the reward for a mining block is halved, reducing the supply of BTC.
The halving occurred in 2012 and 2016 with the last halving occurring in May 2020. While Bitcoin has risen 7.3 times since then, a growing number of analysts believe that with mainstream adoption cycles will no longer dominate..