With Bitcoin on the rise, all the focus has been on predicting where the price of the asset will be by the end of the year. There is no doubt that the digital asset will enter a period in which many failures will cause the price to fall, known as a bear market. Not much attention has been paid to where the price of the asset might bottom out when the market inevitably goes to another bear market.
This long stretch of lower momentum has typically seen Bitcoin lose 94%, 87% and 84% of its maximum value, respectively, in the last three bear markets. One of the recurring themes of bear markets has been decreasing percentages of total value lost. At this rate, BTC is expected to experience a loss of between 75% and 80% from its peak in this cycle. Market analyst Justin Bennett uses this to predict where BTC will fall next.
Bitcoin’s next bottom
Bennett has set the next bitcoin bottom at $50,000 after analyzing the potential price movements of the digital asset. With the current cycle, the analyst sees Bitcoin hitting $200,000 before the uptrend ends, so a 75%-80% pullback in a bear market would see the assets bottom around the $50,000 range.
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This bottom only depends on the cryptocurrency reaching the price range that Bennett expects the asset to reach its peak by the end of the rally. If BTC does not reach this price point before the bullish rally ends, we may see BTC bottoming at a much lower price range.
BTC goes into the red ahead of Friday opening | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Bennett’s pullback analysis gets a lot of credit given that markets have historically been known to see less pullback as assets mature. So the 75% to 80% mark resonates with what the market is known to do. However, if BTC price falls below Bennett’s expectations or does not move the needle much from the current price point, BTC could bottom out in the $10,000 to $15,000 range using pullback analysis.
Peak before fall
Bennett’s analysis did not focus solely on the collapse of digital assets. He put forward his argument for the price of BTC at $200,000 using technical market analysis. The analyst points to Fibonacci extensions as indicators of where the Bitcoin price might peak during this cycle.
For Fibonacci extensions, comparisons between the 2.272 and 2.414 extensions from previous cycles gave a target area that hit the asset both times. With this, Bennett sees the asset peaking between $207,000 and $270,000 before the current cycle ends.
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Going forward, the analyst plans to use the monthly RSI for market exits “Note how BTC tends to end cycles when the monthly RSI reaches above 90,” says Bennett. “He also showed a double top pattern on every lap, which leads me to believe it’s happening again.”
Bennett plans to use a combination of net profit/loss (NUPL) and monthly RSI to slowly exit the asset over the next two months.
Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com